Avian Influenza, H5N1, or as it is more commonly known, “bird flu”, is a virus that is currently passed from poultry to poultry, with hundreds of documented transmissions from birds to humans. At this time, there are very few documented cases of human-to-human infection, though these involved family members in extremely close contact. Unfortunately, of the 322 confirmed human cases since 2003, approximately 60% of those infected with this flu virus have died.
With 195 deaths worldwide over the past four years (as of August 2007), why is the Avian Flu receiving so much press? Health officials are concerned that if H5N1 mutates into a new, highly virulent, human-to-human strain, the global impact would be catastrophic. Unfortunately, little defense exists against that threat, as there are currently only two antivirals partially effective against H5N1. Deployment of an effective vaccine is not possible until months after the beginning of human-to-human transmission, since scientists must identify exact mutation characteristics before a vaccine can be developed. It quickly becomes apparent that bird flu has the potential to develop into a very serious health threat with significant personal and business implications.
The stakes are very high. Both the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Homeland Security state, “An especially severe influenza pandemic could lead to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss. Everyday life would be disrupted because so many people in so many places become seriously ill at the same time. Impacts can range from school and business closings to the interruption of basic services such as public transportation and food delivery.”
The Congressional Budget Office “concludes that a pandemic involving a highly virulent flu strain could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of an average postwar recession in the United States. In the event of a pandemic flu, businesses will need to play a key role in protecting employees` health and safety as well as limiting the negative impact to the economy and society. Planning for a pandemic influenza is critical - as with any catastrophe, having a contingency plan is essential”.
Experts suggest that if a pandemic flu occurs, it would probably spread very quickly, with little or no time to prepare. Pandemics can last up to 18 months, with individual community outbreaks lasting anywhere from six to eight weeks and nationwide waves lasting for two to three months. Global travel & trade will be disrupted. Widespread illness could result in sudden and potentially significant shortages of personnel – to include shortages of healthcare workers and personnel assigned to manage critical infrastructure. Some predictions suggest that at least 40% of the workforce would be out for anywhere from four weeks to three months.
Fear would be the primary motivation to stay home, and most people will be worried about their family’s health, not their income – and certainly not your business interests.